How to detect a fish stock collapse?

Update: we have developed the study into a slightly different direction than what was shared as a preprint. Once we (find time to work with it and) are happy with the new version, we aim to get it back to the peer-review process.

Marine fish stock collapses are a major concern for scientists and society due to the potentially severe impacts on ecosystem resilience, food security and livelihoods. Yet the general state of harvested fish populations has proven difficult to summarize, and the actual occurrence rate of stock collapses remains unclear. We carried out a literature review and multi-stock analysis to show that numerous definitions exist for classifying stocks as collapsed, and that the classification of a stocks status is sensitive to changes in the collapse definitions formulation.

In this study, we suggest that the lack of a unified definition has contributed to contrasting perceptions on the state of fish stocks. Therefore, we comprehensively define what constitutes a fish stock collapse and provide a time-series based method for collapse detection. Through systematic evaluation, we show that our definition can accurately distinguish collapses from less severe depletions or natural fluctuations for stocks with diverse life histories, helping identify the stocks in greatest need of reparatory measures.

Consistent use of definitions can limit both alarmist and conservative narratives on the state of fish stocks, and promote cooperation between conservation and fisheries scientists. This will facilitate clear and accurate communication of science to both the public and to policy-makers to ensure healthy fish stocks in the future.

– Yletyinen & Butler et al. unpublished, available as a preprint

Read here